Issue - meetings

Ahead of the publication of the London Growth Plan, to receive an update from Oxford Economics on their research into the West London economy.  The Board will be asked to consider the key findings and approve the proposed second phase of research.

The Board is asked to note that Neil McCullough, Director of Cities Consultancy, Oxford Economics has been invited to attend for this item.

(Agenda republished to include the attached paper on 20 February 2025)

Councillor Muhammed Butt (as Chair) introduced the item, reminding members that Oxford Economics had been commissioned (following a need identified at the West London Alliance Leaders Board) to improve the evidence base relating to the West London economy.  The Board was advised that the first phase of the analysis had now been completed.

The Chair then welcomed Neil McCullough (Director Cities Consultancy – Oxford Economics) and Hugo Bessis (Oxford Economics) to the meeting, who had been invited to provide a brief presentation on the initial findings from the research.  The following key issues were highlighted as part of the presentation:

·             The outline of the main research objectives, along with initial analysis of the strong fundamentals identified in relation to the size and strength of the West London economy, based on population, location, skills and earnings with strong specialisation identified in relation to strategic sectors such as life sciences, logistics & aviation, creative industries and digital activities.

·             Despite the strong foundations identified, the analysis had also shown West London performing behind other regions (such as East London, Oxford Cambridge Arc, London and the UK as a whole) in terms of economic output by Gross Value Added (GVA), which in 2024 had been 16.4% lower than in 2019.  With the economy in West London still recognised as recovering from the pandemic, this decline was partly attributed to the fact that some sectors had taken longer to recover (such as aviation) along with West London having a lower share of highly productive sectors (particularly professional services).  However, it was also evident that some of West London’s sectors had tended to be less productive then the London average.  As a result, the baseline forecast for West London within the initial analysis had remained relatively modest compared to London overall and the rest of the UK.

·             Although the initial baseline forecast had been modest, the analysis had identified the potential for significant productivity growth in the West London economy with the ability to contribute an additional £7bn per year in GVA if each of West London’s sectors was as productive as the London sector average. In noting that the London economy had been slowing and gaps between regions was narrowing, West London’s position within London was also identified as key, given the sub region’s ability to attract skilled workforce, its international links and its proven ability to deliver quick returns in relation to infrastructure and skills and employment support investment.

·             Oxford Economics had identified five key sectors to explore in more detail:

o      Life sciences: recognised as a well-established sector (Imperial College, Brunel University, various pharmaceutical groups), with significant growth opportunities, and supportive Government policies.

o      Advanced manufacturing: recognising West London as the manufacturing hub of London with activity focussed mainly on food, drink and basic pharmaceuticals. Opportunities for linkages with other sectors (e.g. life sciences) were a key area of future potential, if land availability and cost constraints could be addressed through successful regeneration.

o      Logistics and aviation: identified as key sectors due to the  ...  view the full minutes text for item 5